Somalia is facing a rapidly worsening drought following the near-total failure of the 2025 Deyr rains (October–December), compounded by unusually high temperatures. According to UN OCHA, IOM and FEWS NET (ECHO Daily Flash, 6 January 2026), an estimated 4.61 million people are affected nationwide, with conditions expected to deteriorate further as the next rains are not expected until April 2026.
The FAO–SWALIM update issued on 7 January 2026 confirms that drought conditions have expanded across northern, central, and southern Somalia, prompting the Federal Government of Somalia to declare a national drought emergency. SWALIM reports severe rainfall deficits, critically low surface and groundwater levels, and rapidly deteriorating rangeland conditions, particularly in Puntland, where nearly one million people are in need of humanitarian assistance. According to the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC, 5 January 2026),
Somalia is at a dangerous tipping point, with drought and conflict pushing households beyond their coping capacity amid declining humanitarian funding. NRC highlights that women and children are disproportionately affected, facing heightened food insecurity, displacement, and protection risks. Pastoral and agropastoral areas are the most severely affected, including: Puntland Gedo and Lower Juba Sool, Sanaag, and Togdheer IOM projections estimate that more than 211,000 people will be displaced between December 2025 and March 2026, with 64% displaced due to drought-related impacts.
Somalia is currently experiencing all five major drought types simultaneously, intensifying the crisis: Meteorological drought: Failure of the Deyr rains and persistent high temperatures. Agricultural drought: Failed crop germination and lack of pasture regeneration. Hydrological drought: Critically low river levels and dried berkads and shallow wells. Socioeconomic drought: Rising food prices, declining livestock value, and reduced household purchasing power. Ecological drought: Severe rangeland degradation and increasing livestock mortality. Drought conditions have been worsening since August 2025, with SWALIM’s Combined Drought Index analysis indicating a rapid escalation in severity across large parts of the country.